It is a moment of reckoning for the democratic Opposition. A moment to introspect. A moment to confront some difficult truth. A moment to raise some uncomfortable questions.
Let there be no ambiguity about it: The opening created by the remarkable outcome of the Lok Sabha elections two years ago, steadily shrinking ever since, is decisively closed now. The capture of Bengal is a major advance in the BJP’s pursuit of complete power. It is also a major retreat in whatever survives of electoral credibility in present-day India. Unless the Opposition returns to the drawing board to rethink its politics, recalibrate its strategy and to rebuild its election machinery, democratic contestation is nearly extinguished. Unless someone or something intervenes to rebalance the electoral field and revive a semblance of fairness, elections may cease to be the arena for expression of popular will. And that is troubling news, not only for the Opposition but also for those in power.
Let the outcomes in Kerala and Tamil Nadu not divert us from this grim truth. All that has occurred in Kerala is a continuation of a postponed oscillation in authority. The familiar desire for change and an accumulated discomfort with the LDF government eventually caught up with it. The UDF became the natural beneficiary, with some dues from the delayed transition added to its victory margin. The Opposition may find comfort that the BJP has not widened its vote share, but such reassurance usually proves temporary in the face of the ruling juggernaut. If anything, the UDF’s excessive reliance on minority votes in the state should concern it over the longer term.
Dramatic and inspiring as the success of Vijay’s TVK in Tamil Nadu is, it offers no template to be reproduced elsewhere. The DMK’s dominance with its accompanying arrogance and complacency generated a demand for an alternative. The repeatedly fragmented and reconstructed AIADMK did not fit that role, especially as it was perceived to be a franchise of the BJP that conflicted with the political culture of the state. The vacuum needed to be occupied by someone aligned with Dravidian ideology but distinct from the DMK’s political approach. Following the familiar route established by MGR, a film star presented an appealing and fresh alternative. It is important to recognise that while Vijay described DMK as the “political opponent”, he identified BJP as an “ideological opponent”, declaring himself a follower of Periyar, Kamaraj and Ambedkar. Such a political space is distinctive to this state.
Let the Opposition not shield itself behind any excuses in Assam. True, the BJP had used the EC to redraw the constituency boundaries in a communal pattern to the BJP’s benefit at an unprecedented scale in India’s electoral history. The BJP effectively granted itself about 10 seats before a single vote was cast. Also, the Assam CM unleashed blatant communal hostility against the “miyan” community while the EC and the SC remained spectators. Yet that does not remove the reality that the Opposition failed to display any political determination to challenge the ruling party. The BJP government, especially the CM, was surrounded by allegations of corruption. Zubin Garg’s death was an emotionally charged issue that worked against the government. Yet the Opposition never appeared to have organised itself effectively. It was a textbook example of how to squander an election.
The Opposition in Bengal did not suffer from these weaknesses. No one could accuse Mamata Banerjee of handing a walkover to the BJP. She possessed a strategy, the endurance and the organisation to confront the BJP’s steamroller. Yes, the Opposition was not united, but it worked in her favour to have the Left contest independently. Congress harmed the TMC only marginally. Bengal therefore became a test case for the Opposition, a state every Opposition leader must have observed with anxiety.
Let’s not avoid the obvious: Such a dramatic reversal in electoral fortunes could not have occurred without substantial “anti-incumbency”, a euphemism for public unease and dissatisfaction with the government, that remained underestimated. Public anger was directed not so much at Banerjee herself as at her local leaders and the quality of governance people experienced. True, similar and worse levels of governance escaped punishment in other states, but the BJP and its loyal media had material to exploit. The Opposition must honestly examine its own governance record — not only in West Bengal but also in Punjab, Karnataka, Telangana and Himachal — before it formulates any plans for national politics.
Finally, let us recognise the most disturbing truth of the West Bengal elections. The outcome was not merely a reflection of popular will. The BJP’s victory in the state was engineered by the central government and the EC. The BJP was in disarray in Bengal after the setback in 2024 and was in no condition to confront the TMC. The central government and the pro-BJP media elevated it. The Centre strangled the West Bengal government of resources, suspending programmes like MGNREGS and PM Awas Yojna. The ECI watched while the BJP launched an aggressive communal campaign, more effective in Bengal than in Assam. Above all, unlike any other state, the EC took extraordinary measures to delete 27 lakh names (of the total 90 lakh deletions) of those who had filled Enumeration Forms and submitted their citizenship documents. Every independent inquiry shows these deletions to be wrongful and targeted. These deletions amount to 4.3 per cent of the votes cast in the state. The BJP’s lead over the TMC is 4.6 per cent. The question is unavoidable: If these 27 lakh persons had been permitted to vote, how would it have altered the outcome?
That is the difficult question that the Opposition must confront collectively: Have Indian elections dropped below the minimum acceptable threshold of electoral integrity? How can the Opposition refuse to legitimise engineered election outcomes without appearing to flee the battleground? When and where does the Opposition draw the line, if not now, if not after West Bengal?